Jan 20, 2008

Patriots reach 4th Super Bowl in 7 years


By BEN WALKER, AP National Writer

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. - Perfection comes down to one game now. Despite a shaky Tom Brady, the New England Patriots were still too much for the banged-up San Diego Chargers in the AFC championship game Sunday, pulling out a 21-12 victory that sent them back to the Super Bowl for the fourth time in seven seasons.


I think there will be a time to sit back and reflect," Patriots coach
Bill Belichick said. "We'll certainly enjoy this for a few days."

Brady made several stunningly poor throws that fluttered in the
chilly wind, Randy Moss was a non-factor for the second straight game
and the highest-scoring team in NFL history sputtered all afternoon.
Instead, the Patriots (18-0) relied on Laurence Maroney's spins, cuts
and helmet-rattling runs.


With injured Chargers star LaDainian Tomlinson reduced to mostly watching in a parka, the Patriots moved on to a Feb. 3 matchup in Glendale, Ariz., against the winner of the NFC title game between the Green Bay Packers and New York Giants.


"Now we're going someplace warm, because I'm freezing my you-know-what off," Brady said.


Yet for all the Brady Bunch
has accomplished — they're the only team in NFL history to start out
with 18 straight victories — the Patriots are well aware they must win
that final game to avoid being relegated to a footnote.


No matter, New England
took care of the nuts and Bolts. The sellout crowd at Gillette Stadium
chanted "Super Bowl! Super Bowl!" in the closing minutes, anticipating
the Pats' first appearance in the big game since the 2004 season.



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Jan 9, 2008

Patriots v.s. Jaguars














With Bill B, and Tom B with their heads together, will come up with an attack the Jags simply cannot answer. I'd have to agree, the Pat's Defense will play tough,score two times in a mismatch, and skate the second half.
I hope the Chargers beat the Colts, the only team that can give the Pat's fits.

Jan 8, 2008

Idio Magazine

FYI => Hit the ||-Pause button in FineTune Module to just listen to Idio Daily magazine,otherwise they both start playing. Idio plays one or two songs per day so come back and listen daily.


Jan 7, 2008

Hard-Wired

Here is an article a friend wrote about his experiences with and about dogs and people.
I think it is well worth a read.
enjoy.




HARD-WIRED

How many children must be mauled & scarred by dogs before we understand this: we don't understand. We think that correct rearing & training is everything, that we can repair & control anything about a dog. Unfortunately even most dog trainers and supposed canine experts subscribe to this belief, the very people we look to for advice and knowledge about these animals.

Let me illustrate some things I know, by telling a couple of stories.

Story #1: A New York City apartment dweller decides to get a dog, and chooses a Border Collie, because he heard they are smart, and athletic. (Ordinarily I would comment on the lack of wisdom in this choice, but that’s not what this story is about.) He raises the dog, cares for it, walks it, plays with it, trains it in obedience. He is a responsible dog owner. But the dog never sees anything but pavement and tall buildings for 5 or 6 years, aside from an occasional leash walk in the park. The owner is kept very busy with his job and his life, and is pretty much city-bound, but loves his dog and gives the dog every minute he can spare.

There comes a day when his friend up in New Hampshire invites him up to visit for a long weekend, and he goes. His friend has a small farm, and the first thing they do is take a walking tour of the acreage. The Border Collie is off-leash and has a chance to run free in tall grass and smell the country for the first time in its life. As they take their walking tour, they go through the gate into the sheep pasture, where the man's friend keeps a small flock, to cut across to the barn. Suddenly the Border Collie is all business, it goes into a low creep, eyes riveted on the flock at the other end of the pasture. The man & his friend are talking, not paying much attention, and the next thing they know, the flock of sheep are in front of them, clustered together. The Border Collie is in a lie-down, on balance, 180ยบ opposite the men, on the other side of the flock. Before they even realize what's happening or can say anything, one of the sheep begins to leave the flock, and the Border Collie has cut it off and returned it where it belongs, and gone into another lie down. The dog’s owner is still speechless.

Where does this come from? This dog has never seen anything but the depths of a huge city; never seen another animal except other dogs and maybe cats & rats & pigeons. Yet there it lies, the flock gathered & brought, contained, and the dog is waiting for the next thing we want the sheep to do. How is this possible?

Hard-wiring. It can't help itself. We bred for this specific purpose for hundreds of years in this dog, as we have bred other dogs for other purposes. Hard-wiring doesn't just go away. It isn't something you can train out of an animal. It goes much deeper than environment and training. All canines have hard-wiring of a less specific nature also, things that apply to dogs in general.

This brings me to story #2: You decide to get 2 puppies, and raise them together. What breed they are is not important in this story, pick any you want. You are a responsible, dedicated dog owner, you train them and care for them, and they are a joy in your life. They are also the best of pals with each other, playing, walking, whatever. And in any situation that ever arises, they have each other's back. They are pack-mates.

One day you are at an off-leash dog park, dogs of all kinds are running and playing and chasing, typical dog park activity. You are chatting with other dog owners while the dogs run and play, when suddenly you hear loud growling and the sounds of a dog fight. You look, and several dogs have begun attacking one of your dogs. You see your other dog heading in the direction of the commotion as you start running that way too, and you feel comforted knowing that your dog that's under attack will soon have the support of his pal. But when your other dog arrives at the scene of the fight, to your complete dismay, it joins the other dogs in the attack of its pal, instead of trying to help it.

I have seen this happen many times. Not with my dogs, because I know pack behavior, I know what potentials exist within canines, and I avoid or pre-empt these situations. In fact, I avoid dog parks precisely because people don't pay attention to what's going on while they chat, and because they don't understand dogs in general, and because they don't control their own dogs well enough to suit me.

I will never spend a lot of time saying that some people simply should not own dogs, it’s time wasted. It will never change. People will never stop getting that cute little furry puppy so their kids can have a cute furry thing, then throw it away like a used-up doll when it grows up and becomes too much responsibility, when it becomes “inconvenient”. It's not cute anymore, the kids have lost interest, so just get rid of it.

No, I'm simply asking, again -- how many children, and adults, must be mauled by dogs before we realize that we don't understand all we should about canines? I haven't counted, but I know I am shocked at the number of articles about dog attacks I have seen over the past 10 or 15 years. What will it take to change this? The first step is admitting our ignorance.

Other than the general things that apply to all dogs, what specific hard-wiring might have come with the dog you have, or the one you are considering? What types of situations or stimuli might trigger the potential behavior that lies within your dog? Do you understand the prey drive, and what factors can trigger that? Do you have an understanding of pack behaviors & protocols? Will you concentrate and pay close attention at all times in situations where your dog will interact with humans, or other dogs?

If you are unwilling or unable to consider these questions, and do your best to answer them, then I would recommend you stick with pet rodents, or something else kept in a cage. Dogs are advanced pet ownership.

Don’t ever make the mistake of thinking you know what it’s like to be a dog. It doesn’t matter what breed we’re talking about, this is wolf DNA. The wolf – left in a natural state, one of the most intelligent and successful carnivorous predators on the planet. See that. Know that. Respect that in your pet wolf. That would be a good place to start.

G. Davis
Phoenix, AZ

What I'm Reading => Motion Mountain


This is a FREE e-book I stumbled upon. The author has an incredible way to discuss complex ideas. This, I guess is intended for students, but if you have any interest in your physical world around you and discovery and expanding your mind, download this book and give it a try.
Motion Mountain
I highly recommend it.
Here is a snippet , to wet your whistle;

How Many of Me


HowManyOfMe.com
LogoThere are:
26
people with my name
in the U.S.A.

How many have your name?

Shit Happens - or the Art of Caring Less


Sometimes there are just days when you wake up and realize that the headache you have been having recently is due to the fact that you worry too much about stuff that you can't do anything about.
The best thing is to drift more and care less and face up to the fact that sometimes shit just happens.
Here's how a number of world religions and political movements state that fact:

TAOISM: Shit happens.

CONFUCIANISM: Confucius say, "Shit happens".

ZEN: (What is the sound of shit happening?)

JESUIT-ISM: If shit happens and when nobody is watching, is it really shit?

ISLAM: Shit happens if it is the will of Allah.

COMMUNISM: Equal shit happens to all people.

CATHOLICISM: Shit happens because you are bad.

PSYCHOANALYSIS: Shit happens because of your toilet training.

SCIENTOLOGY: Shit happens if you're on our shit list.

ZOROASTRIANISM: Bad shit happens, and good shit happens.

UNITARIANISM: Maybe shit happens. Let's have coffee and donuts.

RIGHT-WING PROTESTANTISM: Let this shit happen to someone else.

JUDAISM: Why does shit always happen to US?

REFORM JUDAISM: Got any Kaopectate?

MYSTICISM: What weird shit!

AGNOSTICISM: What is this shit?

ATHEISM: I don't believe this shit!

NIHILISM: Who needs this shit?

AZTEC: Cut out this shit!

QUAKER: Let's not fight over this shit.

FORTEANISM: No shit??

12-STEP: I am powerless to cut the shit.

VOODOO: Hey, that shit looks just like you!

NEW-AGE: Visualise shit not happening.

DEISM: Shit just happens.

EXISTENTIALISM: Shit doesn't happen; shit is.

SECULAR HUMANISM: Shit evolves.

CHRISTIAN SCIENCE: Shit is in your mind.

BUDDHISM: Shit happens, but pay no mind.

SHINTOISM: Shit is everywhere.

HINDUISM: This shit has happened before.

WICCA: Mix this shit together and make it happen!

HASIDISM: Shit never happens the same way twice.

THEOSOPHY: You don't know half of the shit that happens.

DIANETICS: Your mother gave you shit before your were born.

SEVENTH DAY ADVENTIST: No shit on Saturdays.

Jehovah's WITNESSES: No shit happens until Armageddon.

MOONIES: Only happy shit really happens.

HOPI: Corn fertiliser happens.

BAHA'I: It's all the same shit.

STOICISM: This shit is good for me.

OBJECTIVISM: Our shit is good for you.

EST: If my shit bothers you, that's your fault.

REAGANISM: Don't move; the shit will trickle down.

FASCISM: Shit makes the trains run on time.

CARGO CULT: A barge will come and take all the shit away.

EMACS: Hold down Control-Meta-Shit.

DISCORDIANISM: Some funny shit happened to me today.

RASTAFARIANISM: Let's smoke this shit.

CHARISMATIC: This is not shit and it doesn't smell bad.

MASONIC: Shit happens, but we can't discuss it during Lodge.

RED CROSS: Shit happens - send money.


Jan 2, 2008

Make a little Book for your Pocket


This is so geek....
If you go to PocketMod.com
You will find many free templates that you can have in your little book.
I find they are great to collect to-do list, links to visit, phone #, and many other useful tidbits of info to put in your pocket rather than clog your brain.
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Jan 1, 2008

What's the difference between a million, a billion and a trillion?


A million seconds is 13 days.
A billion seconds is 31 years.
A trillion seconds is 31,688 years.

Bill Gates has 806 years worth of you know what!

A million minutes ago was – 1 year, 329 days, 10 hours and 40 minutes ago.

A billion minutes ago was just after the time of Christ.

Bushs' Iraq War spends back 2.2 billion a Month !
11 Million an Hour!

A million hours ago was in 1885.
A billion hours ago man had not yet walked on earth.


A million dollars ago was five (5) seconds ago at the U.S. Treasury.
A billion dollars ago was late yesterday afternoon at the U.S. Treasury.

1.2 Trillion Dollar budget 2007
Thank You Congress!

A trillion dollars is so large a number that only politicians
can use the term in conversation… probably because they
seldom think about what they are really saying. I’ve read that
mathematicians do not even use the term trillion!
Here is some perspective on TRILLION:

Trillion = 1,000,000,000,000.

The country has not existed for a trillion seconds.
Western civilization has not been around a trillion seconds.
One trillion seconds ago – 31,688 years – Neanderthals stalked the plains of Europe.


Million: 1,000,000
Billion: 1,000,000,000
Trillion: 1,000,000,000,000
Quintillion: 1,000,000,000,000,000,000
Sextillion: 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
Nonillion: 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
Centillion: 1 followed by 303 zeros

I bet it only takes you seconds to draw conclusions.
Real numbers..

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Housing Summary by Calculated Risk/ Politics & Economics


By CalculatedRisk


What is that pig? It's from Tanta's Excel Art. A Mortgage Pig™ exclusive.

Raindrops Keep Falling on My Pig Warning: this is a large (2 MB) Excel File.

And yes, the Mortgage Pig™ is wearing lipstick.

Happy New Year to All!

The following are some excerpts (with graphs) from a few housing posts in December. Follow the link for the entire post.

From Homeowners With Negative Equity

The
following graph shows the number of homeowners with no or negative
equity, using the most recent First American data, with several
different price declines.

Homeowners with no or negative equity Click on graph for larger image.

At
the end of 2006, there were approximately 3.5 million U.S. homeowners
with no or negative equity. (approximately 7% of the 51 million
household with mortgages).

By the end of 2007, the number will have risen to about 5.6 million.

If prices decline an additional 10% in 2008, the number of homeowners with no equity will rise to 10.7 million.

The last two categories are based on a 20%, and 30%, peak to trough declines.

From: Home Builders and Homeownership Rates

From 1995 to 2005, the U.S. homeownership rate climbed from 64% to 69%, or about 0.5% per year.

U.S. Homeownership Rates The graph shows the homeownership rate since 1965. Note the scale starts at 60% to better show the recent change.

The reasons for the change in homeownership rate will be discussed [see here],
but here are two key points: 1) The change in the homeownership rate
added about half a million new homeowners per year, as compared to a
steady homeownership rate, 2) the rate (red arrow is trend) appears to
be heading down.

From: MBA Mortgage Delinquency Graph

MBA Mortgage Delinquency Here is a graph of the MBA mortgage delinquency rate since 1979.

This
is the overall delinquency rate, and it is at the highest rates since
1986. As noted earlier this morning, delinquencies are getting worse in
every category - including prime fixed rate mortgages - and getting
worse at a faster rate in every category.

NOTE on 12/31/2007: See: Defaults on Insured Mortgages Reach Record



From: Housing Inventory and Rental Units

Rental Units
Renting is a substitute for owning, and to understand the current
excess housing inventory, we also need to consider rental units.

This graph shows the number of occupied (blue) and vacant (red) rental units in the U.S. (all data from the Census Bureau).



From: Downey Financial Non-Performing Assets

Downey Financial Non-Performing Assets From the Downey Financial 8-K released on Dec 14th.

This would be a nice looking chart, except those are the percent non-performing assets by month.





From: NAHB: Builder Confidence Unchanged at Record Low

NAHB Housing Market Index The NAHB reports that builder confidence was unchanged at a record low 19 in December.

NAHB: Builder Confidence Remains Unchanged For Third Consecutive Month
Builder
confidence in the market for new single-family homes remained unchanged
for a third consecutive month in December as problems in the mortgage
market and excess inventory issues continued, according to the latest
NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. The HMI
held even at 19 this month, its lowest reading since the series began
in January 1985.


From: Single Family Starts Fall to Lowest Level Since April 1991

Housing Starts Completions Here is a long term graph of starts and completions. Completions follow starts by about 6 to 7 months.

Look
at what is about to happen to completions: Completions were at a 1,344
million rate in November, but are about to follow starts to below the
1.2 million level. I'd expect completions to fall rapidly over the next
few months, impacting residential construction employment.

From: November New Home Sales

According to the Census Bureau report,
New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of
647 thousand. Sales for October were revised down to 711 thousand, from
728 thousand. Numbers for August and September were also revised down.
New Home SalesSales
of new one-family houses in November 2007 were at a seasonally adjusted
annual rate of 647,000 ... This is 9.0 percent below the revised
October rate of 711,000 and is 34.4 percent below the November 2006
estimate of 987,000.
New Home Sales
The Not Seasonally Adjusted monthly rate was 46,000 New Homes sold. There were 71,000 New Homes sold in November 2006.

November '07 sales were the lowest November since 1995 (46,000).


From: More on New Home Sales

New Home Sales and RecessionsThis
graph shows New Home Sales vs. Recession for the last 35 years. New
Home sales were falling prior to every recession, with the exception of
the business investment led recession of 2001.

This is what we call Cliff Diving!

And this shows why so many economists are concerned about a possible consumer led recession - possibly starting right now.

From: November Existing Home Sales

Existing Home Sales NSA
The graph shows the Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) sales per month for
the last 3 years. Note that on an NSA basis, November sales were
slightly below October.

The impact of the credit crunch is
obvious as sales in September, October and November declined sharply
from earlier in the year.

For existing homes, sales are reported
at the close of escrow. So November sales were for contracts signed in
September and October.

From: More on November Existing Home Sales

New and Existing Home Sales Click on graph for larger image.

This
graph shows the seasonally adjusted annual rate of reported new and
existing home sales since 1994. Since sales peaked in the summer of
2005, both new and existing home sales have fallen sharply.

Ignoring the occasional month to month increases, it is clear that sales of both new and existing homes are in free fall.

Existing Home Sales and Inventory, Normalized by Owner Occupied UnitsThe
second graph shows the annual sales and year end inventory since 1982
(sales since 1969), normalized by the number of owner occupied units.
This shows the annual variability in the turnover of existing homes,
with a median of 6% of owner occupied units selling per year.

Currently
6% of owner occupied units would be about 4.6 million existing home
sales per year. This indicates that the turnover of existing homes -
November sales were at a 5.0 million Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
(SAAR) - is still above the historical median.

This suggests sales will fall much further in 2008.

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