Collected Web Shots -March 2008

Man of the Mountain
Loon,N.H. No longer there...

What's in a Laptop, anyway?

Route of Ideas

Whale O' a Photo

Increases in the National Debt

Democrats v.s. Republican Debt Trends....

CHANGE CONGRESS

Change Congress is a movement to build support for basic reform in how our government functions.
Using our tools, both candidates and citizens can pledge their support for basic changes to reduce the distorting influence of money in Washington.
Our community will link candidates committed to a reform with volunteers and contributors who support it.

Think about joining now.

How Bad Will It Get ????

Tuesday, Feb. 19, 2008
by Janet Morrissey
time.com

Sorry we asked.

A number of economists and banking industry experts believe the subprime crisis could metamorphose into the biggest debacle to hit the sector since the savings and loan catastrophe of the 1980s, which caused some $500 billion in losses to the banking industry.

And that means the future of a couple of name-brand financial institutions could be in jeopardy.

Much will depend on how far home prices tumble over the next few quarters,

how high unemployment climbs,

how many homeowners are pushed into foreclosure from rate resets, and, most importantly,

how far the crisis spills into the conventional mortgage market and other parts of the credit sector.

"The impact here could be far larger [than the S&L crisis] in terms of the dollar amount and the spillover effects into other parts of the economy, particularly the consumer," said Merrill Lynch economist Kathy Bostjancic.

Home prices fell about 6% in 2007 and are expected to tumble another 15% in 2008, 10% in 2009 and 5% in 2010,

said Bostjancic.

Unemployment, which climbed to its highest level in two years in December at 5%, will hit 5.8% by year end and 6% in 2009, predicts Bostjancic. As this happens, she said, the crunch will likely expand into prime mortgages, home equity loans and credit cards, making it the worst consumer recession since 1980.

The buildup of credit was "unprecedented" and is now unwinding, she said.

The Bush Administration's rate-freeze program for certain subprime homeowners and the recently passed stimulus/rebate package, along with the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate cuts, offer short-term fixes. But it won't stop the carnage. "The principal concern of the current credit crisis lies in the possibility that banks will eventually run out of capital," said Doug Duncan, chief economist with the Mortgage Bankers Association, in his updated 2008 forecast.

Many believe the government will ultimately step in with a housing industry bailout to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars before it would allow a major bank to collapse.

Subprime horror stories have been making headlines for much of the past year as falling home prices, a pullback in housing demand, overbuilding, interest rate resets, growing defaults and tightening lending standards played havoc in the residential market. A flurry of mortgage companies, including American Home Mortgage Investment Corp., New Century Financial Corp. and Delta Financial Corp., filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Big banks took large write-downs, and chief executives from three of them — Citigroup's Charles Prince, Bear Stearns' James Cayne and Merrill Lynch's Stanley O'Neil — resigned. Citigroup and Merrill Lynch shook the market when Citigroup posted an $18.1 billion write-down, $9.8 billion loss, and 41% dividend cut, and Merrill Lynch posted its largest loss in the firm's 94-year history in the fourth quarter. Both warned of more write-downs ahead. "Who would have guessed the banks would have incurred the losses they've incurred already, especially on triple A investments," said Chip MacDonald, partner in the Atlanta office of Jones Day.

Experts fear this is just the tip of the iceberg. There are $1 trillion in outstanding subprime mortgages, with potential losses estimated at about $250 billion, said Bose George, an equity analyst with Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Inc. Columbia University professor Charles Calomiris pegs the losses even higher — at between $300 and $400 billion.

All of this comes as a large wave of ARM and hybrid mortgages are poised to reset this year — an event that could push the crisis into the conventional mortgage and credit markets. Once this happens, "it's almost impossible to imagine any bank or financial institution going unscathed and I would be very surprised if at least some aren't threatened," said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, a Washington think tank. He believes the losses will easily exceed that of the S&L debacle.

Subprime borrowers, who had eye-poppingly low teaser rates of 7% to 8%, will see rates jump as high as 11% when they reset. Even conventional borrowers with ARM and hybrid mortgages could face a crunch, especially those who stretched their finances to buy a home, those who took advantage of loose lending standards by taking out big loans without showing documented proof they could afford it, and those whose home values have plummeted below the mortgage amount.

Merrill Lynch's Bostjancic said the biggest impact of rate resets, from a dollar perspective, will come in the third quarter of 2008. She sees losses from all loan defaults exceeding $500 billion in 2008.

There are already signs the turmoil is creeping into the conventional mortgage market and other credit areas. Indeed, 5.6% of all loans were at least 30 days overdue in the third quarter — the highest rate in 20 years , according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Mark Greene, chief executive of credit analysis firm Fair Isaac Corp., warns that "losses on prime mortgages can easily be two to three times what they were on subprime mortgages." Delinquencies are also ticking up among credit cards and home equity loans, said Dennis Moroney, an analyst with TowerGroup Research.

"It kind of reminds me of the old cartoon of the little Dutch boy with his finger in the dyke, and while he's trying to plug up the subprime hole, there are leaks sprouting all around him," said Mark Fitzgibbon, director of equity research at Sandler O'Neill & Partners. "Subprime is just one small piece of of it."

Bostjancic said the credit crunch is already affecting consumer spending as U.S. retailers experienced the worst holiday sales season since 2001, and consumer confidence hit its lowest level in 20 years. "The amount of debt that's likely to go bad is virtually certain to be in the high hundreds of billions of dollars, and it wouldn't surprise me if it ends up crossing a trillion," said Baker.

Steve Persky, managing partner and chief executive of Dalton Investments LLC, believes the federal government would step in with a heavy-handed bailout before allowing a major bank to blow up. "I don't think the Fed will let a major bank fail," he said.

Still, some industry analysts and investors see opportunity in the beaten-down financial stocks and battered mortgage-backed securities market. "There are double-A and triple-A subprime-backed securities that have a 25% or 30% collateral cushion below them that are trading at 50 cents on the dollar," Persky said. "This presents one of the best distressed opportunities I've seen in years."

Sharon Haas, managing director of Fitch Ratings, admits investors "started to panic" and randomly slashed values on virtually all mortgage-backed securities, even those that aren't at risk. "The market just doesn't know how to value those securities," she said. It had better learn soon, or the price of that education will become astronomical.

OBAMA OBAMA

GO TO THIS SITE....NOW!!!

DIPDIVE.COM







The Yes We Can Song
by will.i.am


I was sitting in my recording studio watching the debates...
Torn between the candidates

I was never really big on politics...
and actually I’m still not big on politics...
but 4 years ago, me and the black eyed peas supported Kerry...
And we supported Kerry with all our might...
We performed and performed and performed for the DNC...
doing all we could do to get the youth involved...

The outcome of the last 2 elections has saddened me...
on how unfair, backwards, upside down, unbalanced, untruthful,
corrupt, and just simply, how wrong the world and "politics" are...

So this year i wanted to get involved and do all i could early...

And i found myself torn...
because this time it’s not that simple...
our choices aren’t as clear as the last elections ...
last time it was so obvious...
Bush and war
vs
no Bush and no war...

But this time it’s not that simple...
and there are a lot of people that are torn just like i am...

So for awhile I put it off and i was going to wait until it was decided for me...

And then came New Hampshire...

And i was captivated...

Inspired...

I reflected on my life...
and the blessings I have...
and the people who fought for me to have these rights and blessings...

and I’m not talking about a "black thing"
I’m talking about a "human thing" me as a "person"
an American...

That speech made me think of Martin Luther King...
Kennedy...
and Lincoln...
and all the others that have fought for what we have today...

what America is "supposed" to be...

freedom...
equality...
and truth...

and thats not what we have today...
we think we are free...
but in reality terror and fear controls our decisions...

this is not the America that our pioneers and leaders fought and
died for...

and then there was New Hampshire

it was that speech...
like many great speeches...
that one moved me...
because words and ideas are powerful...

It made me think...
and realize that today we have "very few" leaders...
maybe none...

but that speech...

it inspired me...
it inspired me to look inside myself and outwards towards the world...
it inspired me to want to change myself to better the world...
and take a "leap" towards change...
and hope that others become inspired to do the same...
change themselves..
change their greed...
change their fears...
and if we "change that"
"then hey"..
we got something right...???...

1 week later after the speech settled in me...
I began making this song...
I came up with the idea to turn his speech into a song...
because that speech effected and touched my inner core like nothing in a very long time...

it spoke to me...

because words and ideas are powerful...

I just wanted to add a melody to those words...
I wanted the inspiration that was bubbling inside me to take over...

so i let it..

I wasn't afraid to stand for something...
to stand for "change"...
I wasn't afraid of "fear"...
it was pure inspiration...

so I called my friends...
and they called their friends...
in a matter of 2 days...
We made the song and video...

Usually this process would take months...
a bunch of record company people figuring out strategies and release dates...
interviews...
all that stuff...
but this time i took it in my own hands...
so i called my friends sarah pantera, mike jurkovac, fred goldring, and jesse dylan to help make it happen...
and they called their friends..
and we did it together in 48 hours...
and instead of putting it in the hands of profit we put it in the hands of inspiration...

then we put it on the net for the world to feel...

When you are truly inspired..
magic happens...
incredible things happen...
love happens..
(and with that combination)

"love, and inspiration"

change happens...

"change for the better"
Inspiration breeds change...

"Positive change"...

no one on this planet is truly experienced to handle the obstacles we face today...
Terror, fear, lies, agendas, politics, money, all the above...
It’s all scary...

Martin Luther King didn't have experience to lead...
Kennedy didn't have experience to lead...
Susan B. Anthony...
Nelson Mandela...
Rosa Parks...
Gandhi...
Anne Frank...
and everyone else who has had a hand in molding the freedoms we have and take for granted today...

no one truly has experience to deal with the world today...

they just need "desire, strength, courage ability, and passion" to change...
and to stand for something even when people say it's not possible...

America would not be here "today" if we didn’t stand and fight for
change "yesterday"...
Everything we have as a "people" is because of the "people" who fought for
change...
and whoever is the President has to realize we have a lot of changing to do

I'm not trying to convince people to see things how i do...
I produced this song to share my new found inspiration and how I've been moved...
I hope this song will make you feel...
love...
and think...
and be inspired just like the speech inspired me...

that’s all...



Let's all come together like America is supposed to...
Like Japan did after Hiroshima...

that was less than 65 years ago...
and look at Japan now...

they did it together...
they did it...

"We can't?...

Are you serious..?..

WE CAN!!!

Yes we can...
A United "America"
Democrats, Republicans and Independents together...
Building a new America

We can do it...
"TOGETHER"

Thank you for reading and listening...
will.i.am

18 -ONO

PATRIOTS LOSE TO THE GIANTS !!

NOTHING MORE TO SAY........

WHOLE SEASON DOWN THE TUBE....

MAN DID THAT SUCK....

Patriots reach 4th Super Bowl in 7 years

By BEN WALKER, AP National Writer

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. - Perfection comes down to one game now. Despite a shaky Tom Brady, the New England Patriots were still too much for the banged-up San Diego Chargers in the AFC championship game Sunday, pulling out a 21-12 victory that sent them back to the Super Bowl for the fourth time in seven seasons.

I think there will be a time to sit back and reflect," Patriots coach
Bill Belichick said. "We'll certainly enjoy this for a few days."

Brady made several stunningly poor throws that fluttered in the
chilly wind, Randy Moss was a non-factor for the second straight game
and the highest-scoring team in NFL history sputtered all afternoon.
Instead, the Patriots (18-0) relied on Laurence Maroney's spins, cuts
and helmet-rattling runs.

With injured Chargers star LaDainian Tomlinson reduced to mostly watching in a parka, the Patriots moved on to a Feb. 3 matchup in Glendale, Ariz., against the winner of the NFC title game between the Green Bay Packers and New York Giants.

"Now we're going someplace warm, because I'm freezing my you-know-what off," Brady said.

Yet for all the Brady Bunch
has accomplished — they're the only team in NFL history to start out
with 18 straight victories — the Patriots are well aware they must win
that final game to avoid being relegated to a footnote.

No matter, New England
took care of the nuts and Bolts. The sellout crowd at Gillette Stadium
chanted "Super Bowl! Super Bowl!" in the closing minutes, anticipating
the Pats' first appearance in the big game since the 2004 season.

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Patriots v.s. Jaguars

With Bill B, and Tom B with their heads together, will come up with an attack the Jags simply cannot answer. I'd have to agree, the Pat's Defense will play tough,score two times in a mismatch, and skate the second half.
I hope the Chargers beat the Colts, the only team that can give the Pat's fits.

Idio Magazine

FYI => Hit the ||-Pause button in FineTune Module to just listen to Idio Daily magazine,otherwise they both start playing. Idio plays one or two songs per day so come back and listen daily.

Hard-Wired

Here is an article a friend wrote about his experiences with and about dogs and people.
I think it is well worth a read. enjoy.




HARD-WIRED

How many children must be mauled & scarred by dogs before we understand this: we don't understand. We think that correct rearing & training is everything, that we can repair & control anything about a dog. Unfortunately even most dog trainers and supposed canine experts subscribe to this belief, the very people we look to for advice and knowledge about these animals.

Let me illustrate some things I know, by telling a couple of stories.

Story #1: A New York City apartment dweller decides to get a dog, and chooses a Border Collie, because he heard they are smart, and athletic. (Ordinarily I would comment on the lack of wisdom in this choice, but that’s not what this story is about.) He raises the dog, cares for it, walks it, plays with it, trains it in obedience. He is a responsible dog owner. But the dog never sees anything but pavement and tall buildings for 5 or 6 years, aside from an occasional leash walk in the park. The owner is kept very busy with his job and his life, and is pretty much city-bound, but loves his dog and gives the dog every minute he can spare.

There comes a day when his friend up in New Hampshire invites him up to visit for a long weekend, and he goes. His friend has a small farm, and the first thing they do is take a walking tour of the acreage. The Border Collie is off-leash and has a chance to run free in tall grass and smell the country for the first time in its life. As they take their walking tour, they go through the gate into the sheep pasture, where the man's friend keeps a small flock, to cut across to the barn. Suddenly the Border Collie is all business, it goes into a low creep, eyes riveted on the flock at the other end of the pasture. The man & his friend are talking, not paying much attention, and the next thing they know, the flock of sheep are in front of them, clustered together. The Border Collie is in a lie-down, on balance, 180º opposite the men, on the other side of the flock. Before they even realize what's happening or can say anything, one of the sheep begins to leave the flock, and the Border Collie has cut it off and returned it where it belongs, and gone into another lie down. The dog’s owner is still speechless.

Where does this come from? This dog has never seen anything but the depths of a huge city; never seen another animal except other dogs and maybe cats & rats & pigeons. Yet there it lies, the flock gathered & brought, contained, and the dog is waiting for the next thing we want the sheep to do. How is this possible?

Hard-wiring. It can't help itself. We bred for this specific purpose for hundreds of years in this dog, as we have bred other dogs for other purposes. Hard-wiring doesn't just go away. It isn't something you can train out of an animal. It goes much deeper than environment and training. All canines have hard-wiring of a less specific nature also, things that apply to dogs in general.

This brings me to story #2: You decide to get 2 puppies, and raise them together. What breed they are is not important in this story, pick any you want. You are a responsible, dedicated dog owner, you train them and care for them, and they are a joy in your life. They are also the best of pals with each other, playing, walking, whatever. And in any situation that ever arises, they have each other's back. They are pack-mates.

One day you are at an off-leash dog park, dogs of all kinds are running and playing and chasing, typical dog park activity. You are chatting with other dog owners while the dogs run and play, when suddenly you hear loud growling and the sounds of a dog fight. You look, and several dogs have begun attacking one of your dogs. You see your other dog heading in the direction of the commotion as you start running that way too, and you feel comforted knowing that your dog that's under attack will soon have the support of his pal. But when your other dog arrives at the scene of the fight, to your complete dismay, it joins the other dogs in the attack of its pal, instead of trying to help it.

I have seen this happen many times. Not with my dogs, because I know pack behavior, I know what potentials exist within canines, and I avoid or pre-empt these situations. In fact, I avoid dog parks precisely because people don't pay attention to what's going on while they chat, and because they don't understand dogs in general, and because they don't control their own dogs well enough to suit me.

I will never spend a lot of time saying that some people simply should not own dogs, it’s time wasted. It will never change. People will never stop getting that cute little furry puppy so their kids can have a cute furry thing, then throw it away like a used-up doll when it grows up and becomes too much responsibility, when it becomes “inconvenient”. It's not cute anymore, the kids have lost interest, so just get rid of it.

No, I'm simply asking, again -- how many children, and adults, must be mauled by dogs before we realize that we don't understand all we should about canines? I haven't counted, but I know I am shocked at the number of articles about dog attacks I have seen over the past 10 or 15 years. What will it take to change this? The first step is admitting our ignorance.

Other than the general things that apply to all dogs, what specific hard-wiring might have come with the dog you have, or the one you are considering? What types of situations or stimuli might trigger the potential behavior that lies within your dog? Do you understand the prey drive, and what factors can trigger that? Do you have an understanding of pack behaviors & protocols? Will you concentrate and pay close attention at all times in situations where your dog will interact with humans, or other dogs?

If you are unwilling or unable to consider these questions, and do your best to answer them, then I would recommend you stick with pet rodents, or something else kept in a cage. Dogs are advanced pet ownership.

Don’t ever make the mistake of thinking you know what it’s like to be a dog. It doesn’t matter what breed we’re talking about, this is wolf DNA. The wolf – left in a natural state, one of the most intelligent and successful carnivorous predators on the planet. See that. Know that. Respect that in your pet wolf. That would be a good place to start.

G. Davis
Phoenix, AZ

What I'm Reading => Motion Mountain

This is a FREE e-book I stumbled upon. The author has an incredible way to discuss complex ideas. This, I guess is intended for students, but if you have any interest in your physical world around you and discovery and expanding your mind, download this book and give it a try.
Motion Mountain
I highly recommend it.
Here is a snippet , to wet your whistle;

How Many of Me

HowManyOfMe.com

There are: 26 people with my name in the U.S.A. How many have your name?

Shit Happens - or the Art of Caring Less

Sometimes there are just days when you wake up and realize that the headache you have been having recently is due to the fact that you worry too much about stuff that you can't do anything about.
The best thing is to drift more and care less and face up to the fact that sometimes shit just happens.
Here's how a number of world religions and political movements state that fact:

TAOISM: Shit happens.

CONFUCIANISM: Confucius say, "Shit happens".

ZEN: (What is the sound of shit happening?)

JESUIT-ISM: If shit happens and when nobody is watching, is it really shit?

ISLAM: Shit happens if it is the will of Allah.

COMMUNISM: Equal shit happens to all people.

CATHOLICISM: Shit happens because you are bad.

PSYCHOANALYSIS: Shit happens because of your toilet training.

SCIENTOLOGY: Shit happens if you're on our shit list.

ZOROASTRIANISM: Bad shit happens, and good shit happens.

UNITARIANISM: Maybe shit happens. Let's have coffee and donuts.

RIGHT-WING PROTESTANTISM: Let this shit happen to someone else.

JUDAISM: Why does shit always happen to US?

REFORM JUDAISM: Got any Kaopectate?

MYSTICISM: What weird shit!

AGNOSTICISM: What is this shit?

ATHEISM: I don't believe this shit!

NIHILISM: Who needs this shit?

AZTEC: Cut out this shit!

QUAKER: Let's not fight over this shit.

FORTEANISM: No shit??

12-STEP: I am powerless to cut the shit.

VOODOO: Hey, that shit looks just like you!

NEW-AGE: Visualise shit not happening.

DEISM: Shit just happens.

EXISTENTIALISM: Shit doesn't happen; shit is.

SECULAR HUMANISM: Shit evolves.

CHRISTIAN SCIENCE: Shit is in your mind.

BUDDHISM: Shit happens, but pay no mind.

SHINTOISM: Shit is everywhere.

HINDUISM: This shit has happened before.

WICCA: Mix this shit together and make it happen!

HASIDISM: Shit never happens the same way twice.

THEOSOPHY: You don't know half of the shit that happens.

DIANETICS: Your mother gave you shit before your were born.

SEVENTH DAY ADVENTIST: No shit on Saturdays.

Jehovah's WITNESSES: No shit happens until Armageddon.

MOONIES: Only happy shit really happens.

HOPI: Corn fertiliser happens.

BAHA'I: It's all the same shit.

STOICISM: This shit is good for me.

OBJECTIVISM: Our shit is good for you.

EST: If my shit bothers you, that's your fault.

REAGANISM: Don't move; the shit will trickle down.

FASCISM: Shit makes the trains run on time.

CARGO CULT: A barge will come and take all the shit away.

EMACS: Hold down Control-Meta-Shit.

DISCORDIANISM: Some funny shit happened to me today.

RASTAFARIANISM: Let's smoke this shit.

CHARISMATIC: This is not shit and it doesn't smell bad.

MASONIC: Shit happens, but we can't discuss it during Lodge.

RED CROSS: Shit happens - send money.

Make a little Book for your Pocket

This is so geek....
If you go to PocketMod.com
You will find many free templates that you can have in your little book.
I find they are great to collect to-do list, links to visit, phone #, and many other useful tidbits of info to put in your pocket rather than clog your brain.

What's the difference between a million, a billion and a trillion?

A million seconds is 13 days.
A billion seconds is 31 years.
A trillion seconds is 31,688 years.

Bill Gates has 806 years worth of you know what!

A million minutes ago was – 1 year, 329 days, 10 hours and 40 minutes ago.

A billion minutes ago was just after the time of Christ.

Bushs' Iraq War spends back 2.2 billion a Month !
11 Million an Hour!

A million hours ago was in 1885.
A billion hours ago man had not yet walked on earth.

A million dollars ago was five (5) seconds ago at the U.S. Treasury.
A billion dollars ago was late yesterday afternoon at the U.S. Treasury.

1.2 Trillion Dollar budget 2007
Thank You Congress!

A trillion dollars is so large a number that only politicians
can use the term in conversation… probably because they
seldom think about what they are really saying. I’ve read that
mathematicians do not even use the term trillion!
Here is some perspective on TRILLION:

Trillion = 1,000,000,000,000.

The country has not existed for a trillion seconds.
Western civilization has not been around a trillion seconds.
One trillion seconds ago – 31,688 years – Neanderthals stalked the plains of Europe.

Million: 1,000,000
Billion: 1,000,000,000
Trillion: 1,000,000,000,000
Quintillion: 1,000,000,000,000,000,000
Sextillion: 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
Nonillion: 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
Centillion: 1 followed by 303 zeros

I bet it only takes you seconds to draw conclusions.
Real numbers..

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Housing Summary by Calculated Risk/ Politics & Economics

By CalculatedRisk

What is that pig? It's from Tanta's Excel Art. A Mortgage Pig™ exclusive.

Raindrops Keep Falling on My Pig Warning: this is a large (2 MB) Excel File.

And yes, the Mortgage Pig™ is wearing lipstick.

Happy New Year to All!

The following are some excerpts (with graphs) from a few housing posts in December. Follow the link for the entire post.

From Homeowners With Negative Equity

The
following graph shows the number of homeowners with no or negative
equity, using the most recent First American data, with several
different price declines.

Click on graph for larger image.

At
the end of 2006, there were approximately 3.5 million U.S. homeowners
with no or negative equity. (approximately 7% of the 51 million
household with mortgages).

By the end of 2007, the number will have risen to about 5.6 million.

If prices decline an additional 10% in 2008, the number of homeowners with no equity will rise to 10.7 million.

The last two categories are based on a 20%, and 30%, peak to trough declines.

From: Home Builders and Homeownership Rates

From 1995 to 2005, the U.S. homeownership rate climbed from 64% to 69%, or about 0.5% per year.

The graph shows the homeownership rate since 1965. Note the scale starts at 60% to better show the recent change.

The reasons for the change in homeownership rate will be discussed [see here],
but here are two key points: 1) The change in the homeownership rate
added about half a million new homeowners per year, as compared to a
steady homeownership rate, 2) the rate (red arrow is trend) appears to
be heading down.

From: MBA Mortgage Delinquency Graph

Here is a graph of the MBA mortgage delinquency rate since 1979.

This
is the overall delinquency rate, and it is at the highest rates since
1986. As noted earlier this morning, delinquencies are getting worse in
every category - including prime fixed rate mortgages - and getting
worse at a faster rate in every category.

NOTE on 12/31/2007: See: Defaults on Insured Mortgages Reach Record



From: Housing Inventory and Rental Units


Renting is a substitute for owning, and to understand the current
excess housing inventory, we also need to consider rental units.

This graph shows the number of occupied (blue) and vacant (red) rental units in the U.S. (all data from the Census Bureau).



From: Downey Financial Non-Performing Assets

From the Downey Financial 8-K released on Dec 14th.

This would be a nice looking chart, except those are the percent non-performing assets by month.





From: NAHB: Builder Confidence Unchanged at Record Low

The NAHB reports that builder confidence was unchanged at a record low 19 in December.

NAHB: Builder Confidence Remains Unchanged For Third Consecutive Month

Builder
confidence in the market for new single-family homes remained unchanged
for a third consecutive month in December as problems in the mortgage
market and excess inventory issues continued, according to the latest
NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. The HMI
held even at 19 this month, its lowest reading since the series began
in January 1985.

From: Single Family Starts Fall to Lowest Level Since April 1991

Here is a long term graph of starts and completions. Completions follow starts by about 6 to 7 months.

Look
at what is about to happen to completions: Completions were at a 1,344
million rate in November, but are about to follow starts to below the
1.2 million level. I'd expect completions to fall rapidly over the next
few months, impacting residential construction employment.

From: November New Home Sales

According to the Census Bureau report,
New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of
647 thousand. Sales for October were revised down to 711 thousand, from
728 thousand. Numbers for August and September were also revised down.

	Sales of new one-family houses in November 2007 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 647,000 ... This is 9.0 percent below the revised October rate of 711,000 and is 34.4 percent below the November 2006 estimate of 987,000.
	The Not Seasonally Adjusted monthly rate was 46,000 New Homes sold. There were 71,000 New Homes sold in November 2006. November '07 sales were the lowest November since 1995 (46,000).

From: More on New Home Sales

This
graph shows New Home Sales vs. Recession for the last 35 years. New
Home sales were falling prior to every recession, with the exception of
the business investment led recession of 2001.

This is what we call Cliff Diving!

And this shows why so many economists are concerned about a possible consumer led recession - possibly starting right now.

From: November Existing Home Sales


The graph shows the Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) sales per month for
the last 3 years. Note that on an NSA basis, November sales were
slightly below October.

The impact of the credit crunch is
obvious as sales in September, October and November declined sharply
from earlier in the year.

For existing homes, sales are reported
at the close of escrow. So November sales were for contracts signed in
September and October.

From: More on November Existing Home Sales

Click on graph for larger image.

This
graph shows the seasonally adjusted annual rate of reported new and
existing home sales since 1994. Since sales peaked in the summer of
2005, both new and existing home sales have fallen sharply.

Ignoring the occasional month to month increases, it is clear that sales of both new and existing homes are in free fall.

The
second graph shows the annual sales and year end inventory since 1982
(sales since 1969), normalized by the number of owner occupied units.
This shows the annual variability in the turnover of existing homes,
with a median of 6% of owner occupied units selling per year.

Currently
6% of owner occupied units would be about 4.6 million existing home
sales per year. This indicates that the turnover of existing homes -
November sales were at a 5.0 million Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
(SAAR) - is still above the historical median.

This suggests sales will fall much further in 2008.

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The Patriot's Perfect Season '07

SlideShow from NY Times

Reflect action Undefeated, Patriots were unflappable

By Christopher L. Gasper
Globe Staff / December 31, 2007

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. -
      When the story of the Patriots' undefeated regular season is written, it likely will focus on blowouts and records and almost unprecedented dominance, but it was composure and resiliency - attributes ingrained in their gridiron ethos - that enabled them to make history Saturday night at Giants Stadium.
     The perfectionist Patriots had to rally from their largest deficit of the season, 28-16 with 9:12 left in the third quarter, and maintain their calm in the face of a chippy New York Giants squad to score a 38-35 victory and a perfect regular season.

Just as they had when they trailed the Colts at the RCA Dome by 10 points with less than 10 minutes to go, or when they rallied from a 4-point fourth-quarter deficit against the Eagles, or pulled off an improbable win in Baltimore, the Patriots performed their best when the pressure was on.

      That's been their modus operandi since 2001. It's why they're the first NFL team to go 16-0 in the regular season (the league switched to a 16-game schedule in 1978) and the winners of an NFL-record 19-straight regular-season games. Saturday night's win broke their mark of 18, set during the 2003 and 2004 seasons.

        "I think what you saw was Patriots football," said linebacker Tedy Bruschi. "That's what I'm used to. I've never been used to all of those 52-14 [games] or anything like that. That's new to me. This is what I'm used to, and these are the games that we're used to winning."

        It was clear from the outset that part of the Giants' game plan was to frustrate the Patriots, who were desperately seeking 16-0, with taunting, trash talking, and edgy play. Patriots left tackle Matt Light said the game featured a lot of late hits and called it a "dirty game."
      "When you sit there and say is it difficult not to say anything, no, because it's in our nature [not to]," said cornerback Ellis Hobbs. "We've had guys talk trash. We've been the underdog. We know what it feels like to be talked down to all the time. We just go out there and settle it on the field and that's what we did."
        It was 22 straight points that finally silenced the Giants (10-6).

    After Eli Manning, who was 22 of 32 for 251 yards and a career-high-tying four touchdown passes, hit Plaxico Burress for a 19-yard score to give New York its 12-point lead, the Patriots came right back, marching 73 yards in eight plays to cut the score to 28-23 on a 6-yard run by Laurence Maroney.
    Then the magnificence of Tom Brady and Randy Moss took over, with the duo connecting for a back-breaking 65-yard touchdown that gave them both their coveted season TD records and put the Patriots back in the lead, 31-28 - after Maroney's 2-point rush - with 11:06 to go Hobbs then picked a fine time for his first interception of the season, picking off Manning at the New England 48 on the following possession to set up a 5-yard Maroney TD run.In the first half, when they trailed, 21-16, the Patriots were succumbing to New York's taunts.
        Early in the second quarter, Moss and Co., picked up a 15-yard excessive celebration penalty on Moss's first touchdown, which came two plays after he was decked by New York safety Gibril Wilson. That set up Domenik Hixon's 74-yard kickoff return for a score.
     Late in the quarter, Junior Seau was whistled for a 5-yard delay of game penalty on the Giants' final drive before the half for holding down running back Brandon Jacobs following a 7-yard completion to tight end Kevin Boss, who three plays later caught a 3-yard touchdown pass that gave New York its halftime lead.
       During the scrum following Seau's tussle with Jacobs, nose tackle Vince Wilfork put his right index finger inside the facemask of Jacobs, appearing to poke him in the face.
      Hobbs said the game - which for playoff seeding purposes was meaningless for both teams as the Patriots were locked into the No. 1 spot in the AFC and the Giants into the No. 5 seed in the NFC - was played with the ferocity of a postseason matchup.
        "The physicalness, all the after-violence after the play, people getting swung around," said Hobbs. "I'm not even anywhere near the play, and I'm over there tussling with Plaxico or another receiver. That's just the nature of the game, when you get a lot of brothers out there in a competitive environment the competitive nature better come out of you or you're going to get ran over.
     "They knew we were going to give it our best shot. We knew we were going to get their best shot. We went blow-for-blow, man."

And as most Patriots opponents have over the years, the Giants got KO'd in the clutch.

      The Patriots' performance wasn't flawless, but it was placid under pressure.

       "It certainly wasn't perfect," said coach Bill Belichick. "There were a lot of things that were not that good. The Giants made a lot of plays on us, but fortunately we made a couple more plays than they did, and again all the credit goes to the players. They are the ones that made the plays and they made them under pressure.

"They made them when there was little margin for error and when we had to make them, we made them."

Wired SCIENCE

My new most favorite show

Wired SCIENCE

I Look forward to Wednesdays 8pm
the show has interesting segments and
takes in depth look at current and otherwise topics.

Check it out!

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Dickheads of the Year

A list on Rolling Stone 2007

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Beaucoup de Chien

"Beaucoup de Chien" is pidgin French for "a whole lot of dog",

The Newfoundland is a large, usually black, breed of dog originally used as a working dog in Newfoundland. They are known for their sweet dispositions. They are very loyal to their families and possess natural water rescue tendencies.

Appearance

Newfoundlands ("Newfies") have webbed feet and a water-resistant coat. Males weigh 60–70 kg (130–150 lb), and females 45–55 kg (100–120 lb), placing them in the "giant" weight range.

Most Newfies are black, but brown, gray (very rare), Irish Spotted (black with white markings), and Landseer (black head, white body with black markings) varieties exist. The Landseer is named after the artist Sir Edwin Landseer, who featured them in many of his paintings.

Temperament

Newfies have a gentle, placid disposition. They are nicknamed the "Gentle Giant" and "Nature's babysitter." Indeed, the official AKC breed description says "Sweetness of temperament is the hallmark of the Newfoundland; this is the most important single characteristic of the breed." They are protective of children. The dog Nana in James M. Barrie's Peter Pan was a Newfoundland. (Newfie owners resent the depiction of her as a St. Bernard in the Disney animated film version; the 2004 film Finding Neverland used a Great Pyrenees).

The Newfoundland is smart and loyal. The breed is easily trained as they are eager to please their masters. They are neither easily frightened nor excitable. Relative to other breeds, Newfoundland puppies, especially older puppies, tend to be calm. Puppyhood doesn't last for extended amounts of time as in some breeds. They get along wonderfully with other dogs. They have deep, fierce-sounding barks, but are not good guard dogs. They have been known to grieve when separated from their families. Despite their wonderful qualities, this breed is not for everyone. Their large size makes them difficult to keep in many living situations, although they do not require great amounts of exercise and as puppies they tend to tire easily.

History

The origin of the breed is in Newfoundland on the East coast of Canada. In the early 1880s fishermen from many parts of Europe travelled to the cod banks of Newfoundland were there were two types of working dog: one more heavily built, large with a longish coat, whereas the other was lighter in build, an active, smooth-coated water dog. The heavier one was the Newfoundland and the other was the Labrador or the St. Johns breed of Newfoundland. The dogs were used in similar ways to pull fishnets and heavy equipment.

Health

The health problems associated with Newfoundlands. Newfoundlands are prone to Hip dysplasia (a malformed ball and socket in the hip joint), Elbow dysplasia, sub-aortic stenosis (a heart condition) and cystinuria (a hereditary defect that forms calculi stones in the bladder). When you buy one make sure the parents have

• a heart certificate (checked by using doppler)
• a cystinuria certificate(that both are not carriers and neither of them is sick)

Quotes

"The man they had got now was a jolly, light-hearted, thick-headed sort of a chap, with about as much sensitiveness in him as there might be in a Newfoundland puppy. You might look daggers at him for an hour and he would not notice it, and it would not trouble him if he did." Jerome K. Jerome Three Men in a Boat

"Near this spot are deposited the remains of one who possessed Beauty without Vanity, Strength without Insolence, Courage without Ferocity, and all the Virtues of Man, without his Vices. This Praise, which would be unmeaning Flattery if inscribed over human ashes, is but a just tribute to the Memory of Boatswain, a Dog." George Gordon, Lord Byron about his newfoundland.

"Newfoundland dogs are good to save children from drowning, but you must have a pond of water handy and a child, or else there will be no profit in boarding a Newfoundland." Josh Billings

Copacetic Menial Labor

Pondering.......

Be it bent over in a vast rice field planting, sowing,reaping a crop till you drop.
Be it confined to a 25 square foot cubicle, 17" monitor,phone, and a process that needs human input 24/7.
Or fighting a 25 MPH wind at 25 degrees, your feet in a cold wet trench, digging clams,all alone.
Possibly, fitting wing nuts for 25 years on an assembly line to the umpteen washer or dryer.
UPS-ers always take a right turn delivery. day in day out, never not a package to bring,ever.

Virtually all species heart's beat around a billion times before quiting, some beat faster for a shorter duration life-span.
Of the 6 billion folks on the planet, what if .001% [60,000]made a significant difference for 1%[60 million] of the planet.
What are the 99.99% of the bubble to take away, for their billion heart beats.


also,
The inflationary financial cost of daily existence has and will increase decade to decade,relentlessly.

As a example,an item everyone buys, but do not need, say Coffee.
A 10 cent cup of coffee of the 50's, is now a Starbucks 5 bucks$.
What "they get" converts 70 years of what is a coffee worth,since most folks pay it,typically?
A 1950 10 cent coffee gets $5 now. Fifty times growth factor.

Convert that fifty times to wages then and now [1950].85/hr x 50=
$42.50 /hr.
Which should be the Aver Hourly Wage...Now.
Not quite the [2008], $7.25/hr it will be in two years,the Republican Congress finally opened it cold heart?

NOT!

Dec 04,07 `Dead Reckoning'

Google-Worthy

Gabby Wilson 10 yr old kid plays a mean Bass and sings the Blues outrageously***

---

Culled @ Random
I have 209,000 files on my Dell
know wonder it takes 43 min. to scan em.
Where did they all come from?

---

IMHO
Patriots pull out a squeakier in Baltimore
it was a good game, Ravens Choked, Brady pulls up their bootstraps again!

---

Web-Wanderings
Paste Magazine
NPR Music
Song of the Day

---

Luck O' the Draw
SOngza

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What Would Jesus do

Bush LIED `AGAIN'

REASONS TO GO TO WAR WITH IRAN EVEN IF THEY DON'T HAVE NUCLEAR WEAPONS

1. We're bored.
2. They may have ended their development of nuclear weapons in 2003, but their development of "nu-cular" weapons has continued apace.
3. Inspiration for a sequel to "300."
4. Because we care about human rights all of a sudden, didn't you know?
5. If they do not believe in the Holocaust we will show them what a Holocaust looks like.
6. There can be only one Highlander.
7. Diplomatic efforts to get Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to wear a tie have failed.
8. Wasn't the bad guy in "No Country for Old Men" from Iran?
9. You go to war with the fear you have, not the facts you want.
10. Because.
    

To Be Googled

Judd Apatow ; writer-director "God of the Geeks"
Timothy Ferriss => 4 hr work week
Elon Musk => PayPal,Tesla,SolarCity
Tim Westergren => Pandora


WIRED AUG 07

REA=> remote executive assistant $15/hr

Blinding You w/ Science

ScienceStuff.com

PoliceAuctions.com

AlldataDIY.com

howto.wired.com

FLAUNTYOURTASTE.COM

TRANSCRANIAL MAGNETIC STIMULATION "TMS"

witty innuendo

preemptive tippers => bribing/payola

hypermiles

panchira [panty-glimpse]

Hubble Telescope 17 yrs old

Syndrome X


Cha-Ching

Digilanti ; citizens policing the Internet


Annual Consumer Spending 2005

Transportation	$8,344	18%
Shelter	$7,432	16%
Food	$5,931	13%
Apparel	$1,886	4%
Health Insurance	$1,361	3%
Entertanment	$1,578	3%
Drugs	$405	1%
Tech	$2,194	5%
Other	$17,277	37%
Totals	$47,000	94%

other includes;
personal health care
taxes
education
gifts

check out

dell.com/gaming

claran mcfeely = Simple Kid /electronic folk rock-mp3



New music search audio and videos=> seeqpod

found this=>Three Dog Night=Eli's Coming/Liar/Easy to be Hard

=> Pink=Who Knew/Get this Party Started


SeaBear youtube

Culled Tidbits- Dec 1

To Be Googled

Elon Musk
[Wired]

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This Weeks Timely Info


Theo Epstein won't talk publicly about Johan Santana, even though the Boston Red Sox appear to be trying to add the two-time AL Cy Young Award winner to their already strong rotation.

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On housing prices:

Home prices are also likely to decline substantially. If the economy narrowly escapes a full-blown recession—as we continue to expect in our baseline forecast—a peak-to-trough decline of 15% in house prices is the most likely outcome. This would imply price declines in states such as Florida of up to 30%. If the economy does enter a recession, prices could decline as much as 30% nationwide.

THE HOME ATM


The Irvine Housing blog brings us these details (hat tip Atrios):

Asking Price: $1,249,000 Purchase Price: $1,157,000 Purchase Date: 1/6/2005

According to the Irvine Housing blog:

The property was purchased in January 2005 for $1,157,000. The combined first and second mortgages totalled $1,156,730 leaving a downpayment of $270. Let’s just call it 100% financing.

By April, they owners were able to find refinancing through Countrywide with a $999,999 first mortgage. This mortgage was an Option ARM with a 1% teaser rate. The minimum payment would be $3,216 per month.

Also in April of 2005, they took out a simultaneous second mortgage for $215,000 pulling out their first $58,000.

So look at their situation: They are living in a million dollar plus home in Turtle Ridge making payments less than those renting, and they “made” $58,000 in their first 4 months of ownership.

Apparently, these owners liked how hard their house was working for them, so they opened a revolving line of credit (HELOC) in August 2005 for $293,000. Did they spend it all? I can’t be sure, but the following certainly suggests they did.

In December of 2005, they extended their HELOC to $397,990.

In June of 2006, they extended their HELOC to $485,000.

In April of 2007, the well ran dry as they did their final HELOC of $491,000. I bet they were pissed when they couldn’t get more money.

So by April 2007, they have a first mortgage (Option ARM with a 1% teaser rate) for $999,999, and a HELOC for $491,000. These owners pulled $333,000 in HELOC money to fuel consumer spending.

Assuming they spent the entire HELOC (does anyone think they didn’t?), and assuming the negative amortization on the first mortgage has increased the loan balance, the total debt on the property exceeds $1,500,000. The asking price of $1,249,000 does not look like a rollback, but if the property actually sells at this price, the lender on the HELOC (Washington Mutual) will lose over $300,000.

These owners will probably just walk away. I doubt they have any assets. They never put any money into the deal, they pulled out $333,000 in cash, and they got to live in Turtle Ridge for 3 years. Not a bad deal — for them.

This story has been repeated all across America (usually on a smaller scale). This was not a subprime loan when the home was first purchased, but the collateral is now less than the total loan amount. The house hasn't sold yet, so perhaps the $999,999 Option ARM first is also impaired.

And look at the Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW). One third of a million dollars, or over $100K per year. Perhaps the money was invested. Perhaps it was spent on new cars, flat screen TVs, vacations, or more - but this Home ATM appears out of money, and I suspect that will impact the homeowners' lifestyle.

This illustrates two important points: We are all subprime now, and, with falling house prices, the Home ATM is running dry.

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The New Addiction
Cell Phones

IMHO

It’s bad enough in an of itself that the money for the war is borrowed, it’s worse that there even is a war. The worst thing though is that George Bush has been able to scare enough people to vote for him because it has allowed him to put their hands, and ours, on the bag and he’s going to leave us holding it while he is down in Crawford, clearing brush. Because that’s just about the only thing that really interests him.

That day in September was not a good one for America, but compared to the damage that George Bush and his government has inflicted on the United States and the world for decades to come, it’s nothing more than a pothole in the road to history.

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Environment Canada has just announced that winter this year is expected to be the coldest in nearly 15 years. The last time Canada experienced such a cold season was in 1994 when temperatures dropped as low as -42C before factoring in the wind chill. When winters are cold and summers are hot

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An Immortal Brilliancy

Edward Lasker (1885-1981) was an engineer and an author. He was awarded the title of International Master, even when his play was of Grandmaster strenght. He was five times US Open Champion (1916, 1917, 1919, 1920 and 1921). Many believe he was a distant relative of World Champion Emanuel Lasker. The game below is his immortal blitz masterpiece against Sir George Thomas, in which he announced Mate in eight. The game features a nice Queen sacrifice and one of the prettiest forced King marches over the board, it makes you wonder if White should have castled with Mate.

1. d4 f5 2. Nc3 Nf6 3. Nf3 e6 4. Bg5 Be7 5. Bxf6 Bxf6 6. e4 fxe4 7. Nxe4 b6 8. Ne5 O-O 9. Bd3 Bb7 10. Qh5 Qe7 Whit mates in eight. 11. Qxh7+!! Kxh7 12. Nxf6+ Kh6 13. Neg4+ Kg5 14. h4+ Kf4 15. g3+ Kf3 16. Be2+ Kg2 17. Rh2+ Kg1 18. Kd2#

Kasparov released from jail.

Bobby Fischer is in a Reykjavik hospital for unspecified condition. 12/01/07

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Like saving money?

10. Be healthy
9. Move to a foreign country (or even visit for health care)
8. Quit smoking
7. Buy used
6. Buy a house you can afford
5. Cut your cable
4. Take your lunch to work
3. Limit small spending
2. Don't buy a pet
1. Move to a lower cost-of-living city

Oh no, you mean I might have to change my life if I want to cut spending?! Yep, there's a lot to dislike here. Then again, if you really need some extra money, many of these ideas can offer significant savings.

---

Throw out the remote control. It's impressive how much less television you'll watch if you have to get up every time you want to change channels or adjust the volume. Plus, it eliminates all those hours you spend channel surfing.

---

The report is an interesting sign that cognitive enhancement, using largely physical interventions such as drugs and implants, is now a topic important enough to trouble the UK's professional medical association.

Many of the ethical concerns center around a potential future where brain enhancing interventions are largely available to the wealthy, leading to a 'brain gap' where the less well off will have relatively poorer mental functioning because they can't access the same cognitive benefits.